Analysis of carrot production development in Karo Regency North Sumatera

Abstract This research was conducted to predict the value of carrot production in Karo Regency North Sumatera 2020-2021 by using Autoregression Moving Average model through some testing stages: 1). stationarity data for 2017-2019. In this study, were declared stationary a differentiation process ( 1 st difference ) with an Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) < 0.05. 2). Furthermore, Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Correlation which decreased sharply Cut Off at 2 nd lag , so that possible models compiled AR1, AR2, MA1 MA2. 3). It decided use model, then it obtained results Regency, positive trend, revealed increasing production. The highest prediction occurred December 2021, amounting 8,580.67841 tons.